Members of the Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Committee say climate change will bring many economic opportunities, but also costly challenges that state government must focus on now.
In its final report, released March 17, the commission said Alaska is at the leading edge of impacts resulting from global warming and that reduced federal spending implies an increased level of state spending may be needed.
Potential positive economic impacts outlined by the report include expansion of commercial shipping in the high Arctic, increased tourism and increased research activities.
On the other hand, global warming continues to threaten dozens of rural communities on or near the coastline, with accentuated erosion problems. The impact of climate change will also be felt in commercial, sport and subsistence fisheries, and sport and subsistence hunting, as well as in the way the insurance industry deals with Alaska, the report said.
While climatic changes have been a part of human adaptation in Alaska going back more than 10,000 years, the pace of warming has been more dramatic in recent years. Having completed its assessment of the impacts of global warming, the commission concluded that the task of implementing a plan to deal with these changes now falls to Gov. Sarah Palin's new sub-cabinet for climate change.
The commission recommended that the Legislature consider a coordinated process for village relocation efforts, a review of capital planning statutes to determine if they meet the needs of potential future impacts, and support of federal efforts on mapping, tide stations, U.S. Coast Guard presence and permafrost thaw.
Legislators should work with the state administration, the Denali Commission and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to develop criteria by which a community is identified as "at risk" and in need of relocation due to erosion or other potential damage as a result of climate change, the report said.
"Once a community is identified as 'at risk' or in need of mitigation/protection efforts, a central coordinating body needs to work with the affected community to identify potential funding sources and navigate the maze of documentation requirements for financial assistance," the report said.
At this point, statutory change may be needed to clearly identify the duties and responsibilities of the agency so designated as the coordinating body for this purpose, commissioners concluded.
Since most affected communities will not have the resources needed to match federal funds, a reliable funding mechanism must be developed to provide that needed local match funding, the report said. Options include a multi-year block grant program for relocation and construction of replacement facilities.
Along with coastal erosion, residents of rural communities engaged in the subsistence lifestyle are going to have to deal with the impact of change in migratory patterns of birds, terrestrial mammals, fish stocks and marine mammals.
"Boreal forests are in a pattern of range diminishment, and a variety of natural vegetative stocks necessary to sustain terrestrial mammals, is in flux," the report said.
The insurance industry also will be reviewing insurance regulations, potentially making significant changes that will be necessary as a result of global warming, according to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, the report noted.
The NAIC has established a climate change and global warming task force to assess climate change insurance impacts on consumers, insurers and insurance regulators. Insurability of Alaska communities, especially those with recurring disasters, is a challenge that will require improved data and detailed risk assessments, the commissioner said.
The commission supports federal efforts to interview and prioritize each community as to the level of risk and potential for recurring natural disasters. This information can help to support cost-effective insurance for public and private community assets, the commissioners said.
The commission noted that with climate change has come the potential for commercial shipping expansion into the Arctic, and related support services that pose potential for significant new economic development.
"Access to Northern Europe via the Northern Sea Route, and to the Eastern United States via the Northwest Passage are vital to commercial shipping interests," the report said.
Resulting increases in state revenues would be tempered by increases in state investments and expenses. Expanded federal and international interagency relationships, regulatory activity, public safety and other state responsibilities would grow in response, with implications for new workforce development and education strategies, the report said.
Commissioners projected an increased number of tourists coming to arctic Alaska, especially by cruise ship, paving the way for more tourism in the far north. Shore-based businesses could extend their operating seasons in support of a longer tourism season, thanks to the warming scenario, the report said.
Commissioners also saw potential for all types of research in Alaska, "a $300 million per year proposition, and a growth sector, in large measure because of climate change research," with half of that activity directed by the University of Alaska.
The research community within the state "positions us well to take advantage of expanding initiatives in support of understanding, diversifying, and managing our economy," they said.
The complete report is online at: www.housemajority.org/coms.
