A Kenai River campground operator says summer bookings are down dramatically this spring, in large part a reaction to the rapidly rising cost of gasoline and diesel.

Hers is not the only business within the Kenai Peninsula and wider Southcentral Alaska tourism market to experience a downturn.

"We are down, oh gosh, 40 percent or better," said Mel Krogseng, who operates Krog's Kamp on Big Eddy Road on the Kenai River. Krog's Kamp does not yet have many bookings for August, and that may still happen, but it is July - the peak period for Kenai River fishing - that is seeing a decline - and that is raising red flags.

For several years, Krogseng has booked the entire campground to one group of 40 coming from Outside. This year, they called saying they had to drop 16 of their number.

"I have two-bedroom units, so that's four units," Krogseng said. "That's a big chunk. Once you've told (other) people you have no space, it's hard to fill it back up."

She said she lost one wholesale electric company group out of Tucson - as many as 30 people.

Her industry colleague, Ron Welbacher, of RW's Fishing Guide Service, said his bookings were down about 20 to 25 percent, but he did not attribute the decline so much to fuel and travel costs as to fishing regulations.

"It's also because of all the commercial fishing going on, because fish aren't coming into the rivers," he said.

Kathy Rider, manager of Central Charters in Homer, which books for several fishing vessels, said bookings appear to be about where they were at this time last year, but who is paying for space on fishing boats has changed.

"Domestic visitors may not be traveling as much, but we're quite a bargain for Europeans," she said.

Rider did say that charter boat operators are having to weather rising fuel prices, and that a fuel surcharge is being discussed.

"It's in the air," she said, but not yet in effect.

Just back from a gathering of international tour operators in Las Vegas, Shanon Hamrick, executive director of the Kenai Peninsula Tourism Marketing Council, confirmed "phenomenal interest" by foreign visitors who aren't put off by American gas prices and who are enjoying a very favorable exchange rate.

"America is on sale," she said.

Just how that translates in bookings for businesses within the KPTMC's membership is rather a mixed bag; some are down as much as 30 percent, other up. Those that have been marketing aggressively are getting business. What they are not seeing is the overflow that was often pointed toward other KPTMC members, Hamrick said.

Still, there's been no indication that July will be any less busy than normal, and some businesses are seeing bookings for the shoulder season, she noted. "Everyone is wondering how it's going to affect tourism on the peninsula," said Natasha Ala, executive director of the Kenai Visitors & Cultural Center.

While visitor numbers to the center are at last year's levels, Ala expects more travelers to choose tour busses to see the peninsula rather than renting RVs. Some, looking for more independence, may opt to establish a base in one of the peninsula communities and make day trips in economical rented cars.

She also noted that she's heard that Anchorage residents who might normally make two or three visits a year to the peninsula could cut that to one because of gas prices. As far as who is visiting the center, Ala said that's changing.

"Walk around Old Kenai and you'll hear a lot of foreign languages these days. It's a bargain to come to Alaska now," she said.

On the southern peninsula, one popular destination for visitors is the Center for Alaska Coastal Studies, an organization devoted to environmental education that among other things offers tours of Kachemak Bay. Fuel prices have had a direct impact on their costs.

"We have had to add a $5 surcharge to our tours, which will go directly to the boat," said CACS Office Manager Melanie Dufour. "It's hard to say whether it (the economy) is affecting bookings yet, because it's still cold and Memorial Day came so early this year."

The last week of June is when activity really begins to kick in, she said. Until then, center folks are just hoping.

"Everybody is kind of worried," she said. "But then, it's a worry every year. It's just compounded this year."

Looking more broadly, visitor industry spokesmen from around Southcentral Alaska also are reporting changes in visitor trends.

"Border crossings are down for May, and May and June are the tellers," said Ron Peck, president of the Alaska Travel Industry Association (ATIA). "I don't know from a car and RV rental standpoint, but anecdotally, a company relying on independent excursion day cruises tells us their bookings are down only about a half percent. But they're getting a lot of international visitors. The Europeans and Japanese are seeing us as on sale because of the falling dollar."

Peck predicted folks with adequate disposable income are likely to drive north on vacation regardless of the price of gas and diesel. Those living on more marginal incomes are the ones less likely to come to Alaska.

On the other hand, there is a kind of silver lining to the low dollar and high fuel costs, said Dave Worrell, director of communications for ATIA.

"Domestic travelers are seeing Europe as being priced out of reach. They can look at Alaska as an exotic vacation that is still affordable," he said.

Alaska Chamber of Commerce President Wayne Stevens said people generally tend to reduce their driving travel when fuel prices elevate.

"If I had a lot full of SUVs or big pickups, I'd be squirming about now," he said. "You read a lot about small cars moving off the lots."

He agreed that Alaska might look attractive to foreign travelers this summer, now that the dollar is soft against some foreign currencies.

"People from other countries see Alaska as a cost-effective place to spend their money," he said. "What (negatively) impacts one market sometimes betters another," he said.

Blaine Hagedorn, rental manager for ABC Motorhomes, in Anchorage, said that business was seeing a definite change in rental patterns.

"We've had to run specials - fuel discounts to get people to book with us," he said. "It seems to be working. We have just as many reservations, but the trend is more Europeans and Canadians. That is a change."

Alaskans also rent RVs for in-state travel, often to the Kenai Peninsula. Hagedorn said it is hard to pinpoint the impact of fuel costs on that segment, though the company is eying the situation.

"It wasn't a real concern until the fuel costs went to about $4 a gallon," he said.

Asked if folks were considering smaller motor homes rather than larger ones, Hagedorn said the difference in gas mileage is not very great, and once renters are apprised of that, they tend to opt for the biggest rig they can afford.

Other RV rental companies have recently been reporting similar experiences. When it passed the FY 2009 budget June 3, the Kenai Peninsula Borough Assembly increased its support to the Kenai Peninsula Tourism Marketing Council by $70,500, money that will go into the council's peninsula promotion budget. Hamrick said the KPTMC would use the money to leverage marketing opportunities with respect to conventions being booked by the Anchorage Convention and Visitors Bureau. They intend to produce a smaller version of the popular Discovery Guide, highlighting the best the peninsula has to offer in hopes of luring convention goers to the peninsula either before or after their conventions. Meanwhile, as KPTMC continues it national advertising campaign, it will begin focusing marketing efforts on attracting in-state and international visitors. Hal Spence can be reached at hspence@ptialaska.net