In a year where commercial fishermen are left waiting for a run that may never materialize, other groups from dipnetters to sport anglers also are feeling the sting of closures.
Each group targets the same fish. But explanations as to why the 2006 run is so low vary as widely as the boom-and-bust runs of the past few years themselves.
Overescapement has be-come a rallying cry for many in the commercial fleet who view the current management plan as the root cause of the problem.
Unlike the Kasilof River which is managed based on a set optimum range, the Kenai is managed using a sliding scale based on projected run strength.
This leads to some years of high escapement, which commercial fishermen claim increases the variability in the run size.
Others, like Ricky Gease, the executive director of Kenai River Sportfishing Association, blame the variability on nature.
Gease pointed to the similar escapement numbers during 2001 and 2002, the years the fish returning last year and this year were hatched.
The 2005 run was a record-breaker of more than 4 million fish. This year, managers are hoping to reach the lower end of the escapement goal of just 650,000.
“Even within that range you’re still going to have natural fluctuations,” Gease said. “It’s a better management goal to have higher escapement and higher returns with variability.”
On average, the returns of the past six years have been higher than in years past, he said.
And more fish means more opportunity for every user group.
Throw numerous natural factors into the mix, from weather to smolt size, and Gease said the current plan is the best way to handle fluctuations.
“In terms of sockeye management, where there is a lot of variability, it’s better to manage for ranges instead of a set point,” he said.
Commercial fishermen, on the other hand, prefer more consistent runs because of the costs involved — from boat payments to gas — in fishing.
And managers say it is difficult to manage big and small runs, like in the past three years, that have missed forecast projections by a wide margin.
But Gease said many of these problems could be solved if managers used means other than commercial fleet openings to reduce escapement.
“If you want more tools in the tool box, think about expanding the personal use fishery or increasing the in-river fishery,” he said.
Regardless of how the 2006 run ends up, different user groups will likely try to influence the Board of Fisheries at its meeting next winter, said Jeff Fox, area management biologist for upper Cook Inlet salmon.
“Solutions are hard to come by when you have this many people pulling in this many directions,” he said.
Ben Stuart can be reached at ben.stuart@homernews.com.
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