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Story last updated at 1:13 PM on Thursday, December 1, 2005

Forecast predicts Bristol Bay red run of 32.7 million



By Cristy Fry

Bristol Bay salmon fishermen are once again celebrating good news for their fishery after the state released its forecast for the 2006 season. Fishery managers are expecting a total run of 32.7 million sockeye, slightly above the 10-year average of 32.1 million fish. That should produce a potential commercial harvest of 23.7 million, 26 percent above the 10-year average but slightly below last year.

Warner Lew, fleet manager for Icicle Seafoods in Bristol Bay, expects a good season for their fishermen. “It’s a reasonable forecast, similar to last year,” Lew said. “Icicle’s plan has not changed a whole lot.”

The forecast for the 2005 season was 32.8 million fish, but fishermen were surprised with a total run of 39.3 million, 20 percent above the forecast. Partly due to a lack of processing capacity, however, the harvest in 2005 came in at 24.5 million fish, which was below forecast by about 1 million fish as boats were put on poundage limits during the peak of the season. Processors are preparing for a big season in 2006, according to Lew.

“No one wants limits,” he said. “I hope Icicle is in a better position to deal with the limit situation than we were last year.”

All rivers are expected to reach their escapement goals except the Kvichak, which has experienced weak runs for several years. There is a forecasted shortfall of 60,000 sockeye salmon to the Kvichak River based on the escapement goal of 2million fish and the forecasted run of 1.94 million fish.

The run is expected to be spread out among the districts, which should maximize fleet distribution.

“It’s split up nicely,” Lew commented. “It should be a great Naknek year, which will draw a lot of people there. I’m expecting a pretty similar operation to last year.”

The forecasted run to each district and river system is as follows: 11.98 million to Naknek-Kvichak District (1.94 million to Kvichak River; 2.86 million to Alagnak River; 7.18 million to Naknek River); 9.30 million to Egegik District; 3.34 million to Ugashik District; 7.52 million to Nushagak District (4.67 million to Wood River; 2.01 million to Nushagak River; 0.84 million to Igushik River); and 0.59 million to Togiak District.

Cristy Fry has commercial fished in Homer since 1978. She also has designed and built gear for the industry. She currently longlines for halibut and sablefish and gillnets salmon in upper Cook Inlet aboard the F/V Realist.

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